Domestic mutual funds (MFs) have kept their faith in the Indian stock market despite multiple headwinds all through 2022-23 (FY23), with their net flows into equities crossing the Rs 1.5-trillion mark for the second consecutive financial year. MFs pumped a net Rs 1.53 trillion into equities till March 1, 2023, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) data shows, as compared to Rs 1.72 trillion in FY22. Since FY15, MFs have been net buyers of equities, except in FY21, when they sold a net Rs 1.21 trillion.
'While foreign institutional investor flows are still negative, they will turn positive in the latter part of 2023 as India's resilient growth becomes perceptible.'
Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) by Indian companies have declined sharply by 80 per cent so far this year, in contrast with the same period last year, as bankers predict lower deal volumes due to falling profit margins of Indian companies and feeble stock markets. The decline in Adani Group shares has also hit buyer sentiment. According to data from Refinitiv, M&As in India stood at $3.3 billion from 253 deals, year-to-date (YTD) - a fall of 80 per cent year-on-year (YoY). Cross-border deals by Indian companies were also down 84 per cent to just $1.5 billion.
'The market will focus on the fact that India does have strong earnings growth this year.'
Vedanta investors were jittery on Tuesday as its share price fell and bond yields of its parent firm rose following concerns raised by a rating agency on its capability to repay debt maturing later this year. Shares of the mining and metals major were down by 7 per cent on Tuesday to Rs 268 a piece on the BSE. The company has lost market valuation of 30 per cent in the last one year and 13 per cent since January 1 this year. Yields on the bonds of Vedanta Resources, the parent firm of the BSE-listed Vedanta, shot up to 39.8 per cent - showing investors' rising concern over the group's debt situation
Elevated food price-led inflation could become a sore point for markets, which they seem to be ignoring at current levels, observe analysts. Retail inflation in India - as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) - came in at a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January 2023, compared with 5.72 per cent in December and 5.88 per cent in November 2022. The inflation print for February, according to Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, will be critical for the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee.
Indian charitable trusts, including Tata Trusts and top corporate donors, are stumped by a new tax law proposed in the Budget, which reduces tax breaks for the donor organisations. The Finance Bill proposes that if a charitable organisation donates to another charity, then only 85 per cent of the donation will be considered as application of income for the donor organisation. Trust officials say this is a major setback for the donor organisations, including corporate foundations and intermediary organisations, which work with various implementing agencies at the grassroots level.
Adani Enterprises, the flagship of Adani Group, said on Wednesday new businesses of renewables, data centres, airports and roads account for more than 33 per cent of earnings and it will complete all infrastructure projects on time. "We are laser focused on continuing our business momentum, in this market volatility. "We are confident in our internal controls, compliance and corporate governance.
Despite the recent turmoil in the Indian markets after a scathing report on the Adani group from Hindenburg Research, American private equity major Blackstone is "bullish" on the India growth story and plans to invest more in the country's infrastructure and real estate projects. "We have a long-term view on India, as growth will be higher here. We have invested half of our Asia exposure in India. "Our extraordinary performance in India has made us bullish," said Jonathan Gray, president and chief operating officer of Blackstone.
A day after the promoters of Adani Group prepaid $1.1 billion loans, one of the group's listed entities - Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) - announced that it would prepay loans of up to Rs 5,000 crore by next month-end so as to improve its financial metrics. The company is targeting an earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) of around Rs 15,000 crore this financial year. This was revealed by Karan Adani, chief executive officer (CEO) and whole-time director of APSEZ, while announcing the September-December 2022 results.
'People trust India and Indians a lot more than they trust China and the Chinese.'
Aided by the $57.8-billion merger of HDFC Bank and HDFC, India Inc reported its highest ever mergers and acquisitions in calendar 2022 at $171 billion as against deals worth $145 billion announced last year. The acquisition by the Adani group across cement, media and ports dominated the headlines with the conglomerate making its foray into the cement sector by buying Swiss materials firm Holcim's stake in Ambuja Cements for $6.5 billion. The Adani family's additional $4-billion open offer for Ambuja did not get a response because shareholders preferred to stay invested with the new owner.
Here's how leading brokerages and research houses expect 2023 to play out for the equity markets, and their sector preferences.
Brent crude oil prices may rise to $110 a barrel in 2023, up nearly 33 per cent from the current levels, said analysts at Morgan Stanley, in a recent note. This is, however, lower than the peak level of nearly $127 touched earlier in 2022 as geopolitical concerns took centre stage amidrising demand. "Looking ahead, Brent oil price growth will decelerate even more in the coming quarters. "This comes even as our global oil strategist expects a rise in oil prices back to $110 a barrel by the second half of 2023.
The bull run in the Indian equity markets is intact, said analysts at Morgan Stanley in a recent note. They expect the S&P BSE Sensex to hit 80,000 levels by December 2023 in their bull-case scenario, to which they have assigned a 30 per cent probability. From the current level, this translates into an upside of nearly 29 per cent.
'New record for the Nifty50 is only a question of when.'
In a setback to Tata Power, the Supreme Court on Wednesday dismissed the company's challenge to the Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission's (MERC's) decision to award a Rs 7,000-crore transmission project near Mumbai on a nomination basis to Adani Electricity. The court upheld the order by the Appellate Tribunal for Electricity (APTEL) in this case and directed all State Electricity Regulatory Commissions to frame guidelines on tariff determination in accordance with Section 61 of the Electricity Act and the national policy. The verdict has implications for the Mumbai power market, said Ashok Pendse, an energy expert based in the city.
Investors seem to be shying away from stocks of companies in the 'digital' space with most counters that comprise the Nifty India Digital index giving negative returns over the past year. The index tracks the performance of a portfolio of stocks that broadly represent the 'digital theme' within basic industries, such as software, e-commerce, IT-enabled services, industrial electronics, and telecom services. The fall in some of these stocks over the past year has been steep; the sharpest decline of around 60 per cent was seen in shares of PB Fintech (parent company of Policybazaar).
An escalation in the already simmering tensions between North and South Korea, China and Taiwan, and Russia and Ukraine could prove to be a bigger worry for the markets over the next few months rather than central bank policy action, said analysts. The markets, they said, are still not fully factoring in this possibility. "The conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia is another geopolitical worry.
'An eerie similarity with 2019 inflation trajectory could now mean that the RBI and market inflation estimates could go awry.'
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